Promise Ledger: BJP vs Congress
Two parties evaluated like two models on the same benchmark. Each claim or promise by a party's Union ministers, Chief Ministers or leaders is a test case; global indices measure the change during each party's era at the centre. Rules: methodology.
False claim rate
Rates are shares of each party's own graded claims, so a party with fewer claims is not penalised. Lower is better for every row.
| Rate | BJP | INC | BJP − INC (95% CI) | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| False claims share of graded statements/statistics rated false | 14.6% 6 of 41 [5–27%] | 6.1% 3 of 49 [0–12%] | +8.5 pp [-4, 22] | no clear difference |
| False or misleading claims share of graded statements/statistics rated false or misleading | 48.8% 20 of 41 [34–63%] | 32.7% 16 of 49 [20–45%] | +16.1 pp [-3, 35] | no clear difference |
| Promises not delivered share of due, graded promises not delivered on time (unachieved, false, missed deadline, misleading) | 58.6% 17 of 29 [41–76%] | 62.9% 22 of 35 [46–77%] | −4.2 pp [-29, 21] | no clear difference |
| Promises unachieved or false share of due, graded promises rated unachieved or false (excludes late delivery) | 13.8% 4 of 29 [3–28%] | 25.7% 9 of 35 [11–40%] | −11.9 pp [-31, 7] | no clear difference |
pp = percentage points. "Higher" is stated only when the 95% bootstrap interval of the difference excludes 0. Promises not yet due and unverifiable claims are not counted in any rate.
Verdict mix
Head to head by suite
| Suite | BJP (May 2014 → today) | Congress (2000 → May 2014) | BJP − INC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| A: Factual Accuracy | 0.683CI [0.57, 0.79] · n=41strict 0.512 · abstained 2 | 0.806CI [0.72, 0.89] · n=49strict 0.673 · abstained 2 | −0.123 [-0.26, 0.01] · not significant |
| B: Promise Delivery | 0.440CI [0.32, 0.57] · n=29on-time 0.241 · abstained 2 · not yet due 9 | 0.450CI [0.32, 0.59] · n=35on-time 0.343 · abstained 0 · not yet due 0 | −0.010 [-0.20, 0.18] · not significant |
| C: Index change in era | 0.417CI [0.17, 0.67] · n=12up 5 / down 7 · mean Δ/yr +0.002 | 0.500CI [0.13, 0.88] · n=8up 4 / down 4 · mean Δ/yr −0.005 | −0.083 [-0.50, 0.38] · not significant |
Scores 0–1, higher is better. Suite C = share of indices that improved during the party's era (INC: 2004 → 2014 edition; BJP: 2014 → latest). Cells with n < 5 show no score. A difference is "significant" here only when its 95% CI excludes 0.
Leaderboard
| Model | Party | A: Factual Accuracy | B: Promise Delivery |
|---|---|---|---|
| BJP (May 2014 → today) | BJP | 0.683CI [0.57, 0.79] · n=41 | 0.440CI [0.32, 0.57] · n=29 |
| ↳ BJP · Union ministers & PM | BJP | 0.682CI [0.56, 0.80] · n=33 | 0.417CI [0.28, 0.55] · n=24 |
| ↳ BJP · Chief Ministers | BJP | insufficient datan=4 (min 5) · mean 0.625 | insufficient datan=4 (min 5) · mean 0.688 |
| ↳ BJP · Party leaders (not in govt) | BJP | insufficient datan=4 (min 5) · mean 0.750 | insufficient datan=1 (min 5) · mean 0.000 |
| · Yogi Adityanath | BJP | insufficient datan=2 (min 5) · mean 0.250 | insufficient datan=1 (min 5) · mean 0.250 |
| · Narendra Modi | BJP | 0.615CI [0.46, 0.75] · n=26 | 0.433CI [0.28, 0.60] · n=15 |
| · Amit Shah | BJP | 0.800CI [0.60, 1.00] · n=5 | 0.417CI [0.17, 0.67] · n=6 |
| · Nirmala Sitharaman | BJP | insufficient datan=2 (min 5) · mean 1.000 | insufficient datan=1 (min 5) · mean 0.500 |
| Congress (2000 → May 2014) | INC | 0.806CI [0.72, 0.89] · n=49 | 0.450CI [0.32, 0.59] · n=35 |
| ↳ INC · Union ministers & PM | INC | 0.850CI [0.75, 0.95] · n=30 | 0.438CI [0.28, 0.60] · n=20 |
| ↳ INC · Chief Ministers | INC | 0.706CI [0.53, 0.85] · n=17 | 0.389CI [0.11, 0.70] · n=9 |
| ↳ INC · Party leaders (not in govt) | INC | insufficient datan=2 (min 5) · mean 1.000 | 0.583CI [0.25, 0.92] · n=6 |
| · Manmohan Singh | INC | 0.808CI [0.62, 0.96] · n=13 | 0.438CI [0.25, 0.72] · n=8 |
| · Sheila Dikshit | INC | 0.500CI [0.50, 0.50] · n=5 | insufficient datan=3 (min 5) · mean 0.167 |
| · Kapil Sibal | INC | insufficient datan=4 (min 5) · mean 0.750 | insufficient datan=3 (min 5) · mean 0.167 |
| · Tarun Gogoi | INC | insufficient datan=4 (min 5) · mean 0.875 | insufficient datan=0 (min 5) |
| · Siddaramaiah | INC | insufficient datan=3 (min 5) · mean 1.000 | insufficient datan=1 (min 5) · mean 1.000 |
| · Jairam Ramesh | INC | insufficient datan=4 (min 5) · mean 0.875 | insufficient datan=2 (min 5) · mean 0.500 |
| · Ashok Gehlot | INC | insufficient datan=2 (min 5) · mean 0.500 | insufficient datan=1 (min 5) · mean 1.000 |
| · P. Chidambaram | INC | insufficient datan=3 (min 5) · mean 1.000 | 0.500CI [0.15, 0.85] · n=5 |
| · Sonia Gandhi | INC | insufficient datan=1 (min 5) · mean 1.000 | 0.583CI [0.25, 0.92] · n=6 |
| · Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy | INC | insufficient datan=1 (min 5) · mean 1.000 | insufficient datan=3 (min 5) · mean 0.333 |
Rows: each party, then by office (Union ministers, Chief Ministers, party office-bearers), then individual speakers with at least 3 graded claims.
Domain × suite
| Domain | BJP | INC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | B | C | A | B | C | |
| Economy & Jobs | 0.667n=9 | n=3 | n=2 | 0.583n=6 | 0.583n=6 | n=2 |
| Agriculture & Rural | n=4 | 0.450n=5 | n=0 | 0.917n=6 | 0.650n=5 | n=0 |
| Welfare, Health & Education | 0.611n=9 | n=4 | n=4 | 0.833n=9 | 0.393n=7 | n=2 |
| Infrastructure & Energy | 1.000n=5 | 0.500n=9 | n=1 | 0.667n=9 | 0.429n=7 | n=1 |
| Security & Internal Affairs | 0.583n=6 | 0.417n=6 | n=0 | 0.944n=9 | 0.350n=5 | n=0 |
| Democracy & Governance | 0.500n=8 | n=2 | 0.200n=5 | 0.850n=10 | 0.300n=5 | n=3 |
Claims are assigned to the domain of their first topic. Shade: scale from 0 to 1 around 0.5; the value is always printed. Greyed: n < 5.
Radar by domain (A and B combined)
Each point is the mean of all graded claims (suites A and B) in that domain. Domains with n < 5 for a party are left out of its polygon.