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In progress Promise · Medium confidence

Official data show terror-initiated incidents in J&K fell from 228 (2018) to 41 (to 15 Nov 2023), but terrorism has not ended: SATP records 127 fatalities in 2024 and the April 2025 Pahalgam attack killed 26 civilians.

Test case in Suite B · score 0.50

Originalafter (scrapping) Article 370, terrorism in Kashmir will end and it will progress on the path of development

English · ParaphrasedAfter scrapping Article 370, terrorism in Kashmir will end and it will progress on the path of development.

Paraphrased from news reports; not a verbatim quote.

Speaker

Amit Shah

Party

BJP

Office

Union Home Minister

Venue

Book launch event, Chennai (as reported by The Week)

Date

2019-08-11

Topics

kashmir, terrorism, security

Researched by

claude-sonnet

Transcript / text sources

• The Week: Article 370 removal will lead to end of terrorism in Kashmir: Shah (11 Aug 2019)

Evidence

The data

Terror-initiated incidents in Jammu & Kashmir (MHA) (incidents per calendar year) — Source: Ministry of Home Affairs (written reply in Parliament by MoS Nityanand Rai, 6 Dec 2023), as reported by Daily Excelsior, Terror incidents constantly declining in J&K, lowest in 2023: MHA. Article 370 was abrogated on 5 Aug 2019, so 2019 is a mixed year. 2023 is a part-year figure (to 15 Nov); a Feb 2024 MHA reply reported 46 for the full year per press reports. MHA has published other series with different definitions (e.g. an April 2022 reply cited 417 incidents in 2018 and 255 in 2019), so compare only within one series. SATP total fatalities (civilians + security forces + terrorists) per its J&K page: 2014: 189; 2015: 175; 2016: 267; 2017: 357; 2018: 452; 2019: 283; 2020: 321; 2021: 274; 2022: 253; 2023: 134 (12 civilians, 33 security forces, 87 terrorists); 2024: 127 (31 civilians, 26 security forces, 69 terrorists). Source for SATP figures: https://satp.org/terrorism-assessment/india-jammukashmir

Government's response

Analysis

On 11 August 2019, six days after Article 370 was read down, Shah said terrorism in Kashmir would end after its scrapping. He also described the provision in the Lok Sabha as a root cause of terrorism (reported by WION; not checked against the debate record).

MHA figures show terror-initiated incidents fell from 228 (2018) to 153 (2019), about 125-129 a year in 2020-22 and 41 in 2023 up to 15 November. Civilian deaths fell from 55 to 13 and security-force deaths from 91 to 20 over the same series. SATP's total fatality count fell from 452 (2018) to 134 (2023). Incident counts were roughly flat at 125-129 a year in 2020-2022 before the 2023 drop.

The decline has not been to zero. SATP recorded 127 fatalities in 2024, including 31 civilians. On 22 April 2025 militants killed tourists at Baisaran near Pahalgam; early reports counted 26 dead. Shah himself said in 2024 and later that violence had fallen by roughly 70-80%, a framing that concedes it has not ended.

The ledger therefore records the 'terrorism will end' prediction as in progress: a large, MHA-documented decline, but not an end. Different MHA replies use different incident definitions, so only same-series comparisons are valid.

Confidence in verdict & review

Confidence in verdict

Medium

Review status

draft

Last reviewed

2026-10-17

Notes

Quote is from The Week's English report; I could not find a video or the original-language wording. The Lok Sabha 5 Aug 2019 speech (terrorism root cause, '41 thousand' deaths) was only seen via WION summary and is not cited as a source. Pahalgam toll: initial reports said 26; some reports later said 28; I did not locate the MHA figure. SATP 2018 civilian/SF split not retrieved. The Wire critique page could not be fully read (only headline retrieved) so it is not used as evidence. Verdict is a judgment call between 'in-progress' and 'unachieved'.